Manifold

Manifold is a play-money prediction market where you can predict and make bets on anything.

Beyond the usual autodata integration documented below, you can also exchange Beeminder's currency, honey money, for Manifold's currency, mana. You can send it to any username (it doesn't have to be your own).

What can I beemind with Manifold?

The number of bets you make. You can set up your goal to make more bets, or you can set it up as a Do Less, and make fewer bets.

Can I track anything else?

So far, no. If you have ideas of other Manifold metrics that would make a good Beeminder-style graph, let us know! We're always eager for this kind of feedback (or any kind of feedback).

Can I have a non-midnight deadline for this autodata goal?

Not yet! If it's something you really need, let us know; we'd love to hear more about why this would be useful specifically for Manifold.

Will it fetch my past progress?

No. We don't fetch bets placed prior to the day you started the goal, so you'll start with a clean slate, with the y-axis at 0.

Manifold sample goal setup

  1. Head to create a new goal.
  2. Click the Manifold icon to start a new goal using Manifold data.
    Manifold icon, which looks like a paper crane
  3. First, type in your Manifold username so we know whose bets to fetch.
  4. Then pick "Moar bets" or "Fewer bets", and the number of bets per day you want to commit to. Lastly, if you want to delay your goal's start a few days (maybe you're traveling this weekend), be sure to tick the Start this goal with extra leeway box. Enter the number of days you want to delay and press Continue.

    Beeminder + Manifold: Manifold user [your name here] wants to make Moar bets/Fewer Bets, with a rate of [your rate here] per day. Start with extra leeway?
  5. Give your goal a brief name. If you want, you can also write a short description with more information.

    "Give your goal a name", followed by two text entry boxes. The first allows you to enter a short slug which will name your goal and create a URL for it. The second textbox allows you to set a short description, and is optional.
  6. Finally, choose your initial pledge. This is the amount you will pay the first time you derail on the goal. After derailing, the pledge will increase by default — use the dropdown below to control how high it goes by selecting the cap. In the example below, I have chosen to start at a $5 pledge, which will increase each time I derail, until it reaches $270 — the pledge cap. (To read more about pledges and payments, check out some FAQs!)

    If you want to start out with a sort of trial period, you can choose to start the goal at $0. If you do that, the pledge will automatically increase to $5 after seven days. If you derail before that, it will also increase to $5.

    Screenshot of the "Starting Stakes" screen. The text says "Your pledge will increase each time you derail until you reach your pledge cap (which you can adjust below)", with a demonstration below showing the pledge progression: 5, 10, 30, 90... to the pledge cap, which currently shows $270. Below, a checkbox button allows you to choose to "Hold the pledge at $0 for 7 days while I get my feet wet"
  7. Step through the preview and payment confirmation screens, and that's it! I'll need to make 1 bet in the next 4 days to avoid paying Beeminder my first $5.

    An example graph showing shanaqui has +1 due in four days, or they have to pay $5.


Keywords: autodata integrations, betting, markets

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