Fatebook

Fatebook is a platform for recording your predictions and the outcomes, and publicly working to calibrate your confidence.

What can I beemind with Fatebook?

Beeminder can automatically track the number of predictions you've made. So if you want to encourage yourself to keep using Fatebook, and keep honing your calibration, that's the goal for you!

Fatebook sample goal setup

  1. Head to create a new goal.
  2. Click the Fatebook icon to start a new goal using Fatebook data.

    The Fatebook icon, showing a set of scales

  3. First, you need to get your user ID from Fatebook so that we can identify you on Fatebook's API. There's a link in the goal setup to find your user ID, or you can find it at fatebook.io/beeminder!

    Beeminder + Fatebook: shows where you need to enter the ID, in the box marked "user ID", and highlights where the setup links you to the right spot to grab your user ID
  4. The link takes you directly to a page where you can find your user ID, and they even have a handy "copy" button to copy it for you.

    Fatebook Beeminder integration: "Want to build an ironclad habit of forecasting? Commit to making regular forecasts on Fatebook using Beeminder's proven commitment system! How it works: 1. Copy your Fatebook user ID below, 2. Create a Beeminder goal with the Fatebook integration, 3. Paste your ID when setting up the goal, 4. Choose how many forecasts you want to make per week, 5. Beeminder will help you hit your goal!" Below that box there's a section saying "your user ID", and a handy copy button to copy it to your clipboard.
  5. Return to the Beeminder tab and paste that alphanumeric string into the user ID box, and hit "Check ID" to continue!

    Beeminder + Fatebook: shows where you need to enter the ID and the button to hit to continue, which has the text "check ID"
  6. The page will expand, giving you a section to choose your rate and add any initial safety buffer. Fill that in and hit "Next" to continue!

    Beeminder + Fatebook: the Fatebook ID has been entered, and shows the name of the account and the number of forecasts made on it. Below, it says "I pledge to average", with a box where you can add the number of predictions you want to make per day, and a checkable box to add initial safety buffer in number of days
  7. Give your goal a brief name. If you want, you can also write a short description with more information.

    Shows the "Give your goal a name" page, with "fatebook" entered in the first box, showing how it creates the goal's URL. Below there's a box with the description entered, saying "I predict awesomeness! Or I'm going to..."
  8. Finally, choose your initial pledge. This is the amount you will pay the first time you derail on the goal. After derailing, the pledge will increase by default — use the dropdown below to control how high it goes by selecting the cap. In the example below, I have chosen to start at a $5 pledge, which will increase each time I derail, until it reaches $270 — the pledge cap. (To read more about pledges and payments, check out some FAQs!)

    If you want to start out with a sort of trial period, you can choose to start the goal at $0. If you do that, the pledge will automatically increase to $5 after seven days. If you derail before that, it will also increase to $5.

    Screenshot of the "Starting Stakes" screen. The text says "Your pledge will increase each time you derail until you reach your pledge cap (which you can adjust below)", with a demonstration below showing the pledge progression: 5, 10, 30, 90... to the pledge cap, which currently shows $270. Below, a checkbox button allows you to choose to "Hold the pledge at $0 for 7 days while I get my feet wet"
  9. And once I've clicked through the graph preview and confirmation of the card that will be charged if I derail, that's it! I'll need to start making predictions on Fatebook in the next 4 days to avoid paying Beeminder my first $5.

    Example graph showing one where +1 prediction is due in 4 days


Keywords: autodata integrations, predictions, calibration, nerds, rationality,

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